Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach 4,3 % in 2026, following 4,1 % in 2025, according to the World Bank's semi-annual report published this 6 of October. This new projection exceeds the one formulated in April by 0,3 percentage point.
The improvement reflects the resilience of the region's economies in the face of geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, and a decline in development aid. However, it remains insufficient to significantly reduce extreme poverty and create the jobs needed for a rapidly expanding workforce.
The recovery in activity is supported by greater macroeconomic stability, more sustained domestic demand, and investments related to energy transition and digital technologies. The outlook has been upgraded for nearly three-quarters of the countries in the region, notably Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Zambia.
The World Bank views this as the result of several years of reforms and improvements in economic management. "The next challenge is to transform this growth into more jobs and better opportunities," highlights Andrew Dabalen, World Bank Chief Economist for Africa.
The challenge is to ensure that increased activity translates into higher incomes and more numerous professional prospects. For governments, this implies supporting productivity gains and economic transformation.
This ambition faces a new surge in prices. Regional median inflation is expected to rise back to 5,5 % in 2026, compared to 3,7 % in 2025, driven by rising global prices for fuel, fertilizers, and food.
This trend erases some of the recent progress made in controlling inflation. It also risks weighing on household purchasing power and corporate production costs.
Public finances also remain under pressure. Public debt has generally stabilized at around 57 % of PIB, but debt service — repayments and interest — continues to constrain spending on health, education, and infrastructure.
The decline in development aid exacerbates this constraint. To preserve their investment capacities, countries are therefore called upon to better mobilize their domestic resources, deepen their local capital markets, and seek more sustainable financing.
The World Bank also emphasizes that the risks likely to curb activity remain significant. An escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to further increases in commodity prices and deteriorate external accounts as well as public finances.
Climate shocks, such as a possible El Niño event, could disrupt agricultural production and aggravate food insecurity. A tightening of financing conditions would further reduce the room for maneuver for states.
In this context, the institution dedicates the thematic section of its report to artificial intelligence, viewed as a lever for productivity, service improvement, and job creation. Its adoption remains at an early stage in most countries, with activity concentrated in a few economies, including Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa.
The main opportunity identified lies in affordable applications, adapted to local needs and capable of operating with limited connectivity. Agriculture, education, health, financial services, logistics, and public administration are among the sectors involved.
Their deployment, however, will require reliable electricity, accessible connectivity, digital skills, quality data, and computing capacities. Governance and regional cooperation will also be decisive.
The African Union's Continental Strategy on IA and the African Continental Free Trade Area can contribute to expanding the deployment of these solutions. For Sub-Saharan economies, the challenge will be to transform this technological potential into productivity gains and more numerous, higher-quality jobs.
Published on 07/10/26 08:58 The Editorial Staff