Arabica and oil dominated the markets this week, driven by supply concerns. Brent approached 110 dollars, while New York coffee diverged from robusta.
Sugar and palm oil also advanced, unlike cocoa, cotton, and rubber.
Cocoa: North American demand weighs on prices
Cocoa closed at 5 645 dollars per tonne in New York, down 0,35 % over the week. After peaking at 5 831 dollars on Thursday, it retreated 3,19 % during the final session.
North American grindings fell by 2,5 % year-on-year in the third quarter, to 109 978 tonnes, disappointing expectations. Conversely, they rose by 29 % in Asia and 3,2 % in Europe, according to Barchart.
Difficulties accessing Ivorian plantations and transporting beans, linked to heavy rains, are nevertheless supporting prices. The market remains torn between supply risks in West Africa and uneven demand.
Coffee: Arabica soars, robusta declines
Arabica posted the best performance of the week, with a gain of 6,50 %, to 305,60 cents per pound. Concerns about the quality of the Brazilian harvest and drought in Central America are fueling this rise, despite improved rainfall in Brazil, which is favorable for the next harvest.
London robusta fell by 1,61 %, to 3 414 dollars per tonne.
In Vietnam, exports reached 1,45 million tonnes in the first nine months of the year, up 16,2 % year-on-year, strengthening Asian supplies.
Oil: Brent returns to 110 dollars
Brent gained 4,91 % to 109,86 dollars per barrel, after touching 110 dollars on Friday. Tensions in the Middle East, threats to Saudi energy infrastructure, and uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are reviving fears of supply disruptions.
Initiatives to mobilize strategic reserves have not been sufficient to dissipate this risk premium.
Sugar: Oil boosts ethanol
Raw sugar rose 2,96 %, to 20,85 cents per pound, despite a 1,33 % pullback on Friday. The rise in oil strengthens the attractiveness of ethanol and could encourage Brazilian sugar mills to dedicate more cane to its production, at the expense of sugar.
Harvest prospects in Brazil and production in India also remain under surveillance.
Cotton: Weather uncertainties remain insufficient
US cotton lost 0,67 %, to 80 cents per pound. Rains in Texas and reported damage in the Delta are disrupting harvests without causing a sustained increase.
Supply outlooks and export opportunities continue to weigh on projections.
Palm oil: Exports support prices
Palm oil gained 3,85 %, to 4 769 ringgits per tonne for the January contract on Bursa Malaysia. According to inspection companies, Malaysian exports rose between 43,2 % and 58,3 % from 1 to 15 October, compared to the same period in September.
In India, imports reached their highest level in seven months in September, confirming the strength of demand.
Rubber: Profit-taking reverses the trend
Rubber declined on Asian exchanges. In Osaka, the March 2027 RSS3 contract lost 2,1 %, to 450,3 yen per kilogram.
In Singapore, the January 2027 TSR20 gave up 3,9 %, to 251,5 US cents. Profit-taking, fund position liquidations, and concerns about the Chinese economy weighed on prices, despite the rise in oil.
Markets guided by distinct factors
Rising energy benefits sugar via ethanol, but is not enough to support cotton and rubber. Palm oil benefits primarily from its exports, while the gap between arabica and robusta illustrates the influence of constraints specific to each sector.
For African exporters, potential gains on commodities must thus be balanced against the possible rise in energy and logistics costs.
Marcode JEAN-YAYAKA
Published on 19/10/26 10:26
The Editorial Staff