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KIVIA ANALYSIS

MacroeconomicsNEUTRAL

Senegal: A fourth quarter of economic and social challenges

Published on October 21, 20263 min

Key takeaways

  • The third quarter 2026 is proving to be quite busy in Senegal.
  • Amid a context of economic difficulties, the Government is also facing social unrest.
  • Several sectors are marked by strikes or threats of systemic paralysis.

The third quarter 2026 is proving to be quite busy in Senegal. Amid a context of economic difficulties, the Government is also facing social unrest.

Several sectors are marked by strikes or threats of systemic paralysis. In education, for example, teachers have decided to initiate strike actions just days after the start of the school year, thereby casting a shadow of uncertainty over the year.

The discontent is also spreading to other sectors. The electricity sector, for instance, is beset by labor unrest.

Demanding primarily a performance bonus, employees of Senelec are beginning a strike this Wednesday. Although the General Management provides reassurances and promises service continuity, concern is already spreading among households.

The air transport sector is not spared from social tensions either. The Trade Union of Aeronautical Activities Personnel of Senegal has announced a strike to demand rights and better working conditions.

At the same time, the Autonomous Union of Doctors and Pharmacists has called for a strike, as has the union for Justice sector workers. These strike actions and social tensions are noted in a particular context where Senegal is set to host the Youth Olympic Games from 31 October 2026 to 13 November 2026.

A program to conclude with the FMI

The fourth quarter 2026 is quite crucial for Senegal in terms of economics and finance. Senegal is doubling its efforts to conclude its partnership with the International Monetary Fund (FMI) by December, with technical agreement reached on 1 September last.

Thus, Senegal intends to finalize everything in order to receive the first disbursements of the 2,2 billion dollar package planned. At the same time, the other major project is the treatment of external debt amounting to 18 300 billion FCFA owed to multilateral, commercial, and bilateral partners.

Discussions began on 6 October last with the Creditor Committees. The ambition stated by Senegal is to reach agreements and sign protocols before December, in order to proceed with implementation starting in January 2027.

Ensuring institutional stability

Currently, relations between the legislative and executive branches in Senegal are not ideal. The President of the National Assembly, Ousmane Sonko, called on his colleagues last Monday not to vote for finance bills if adjustments are not made regarding subsidies and special funds.

These remarks caused an immediate reaction in the financial markets. Because the following day, yesterday Tuesday 20 October 2026, according to Bloomberg, all Senegalese bonds denominated in euros and dollars lost more than one cent, with long-term bonds recording the sharpest declines.

The bond maturing in 2037 fell by 2,166 cents to settle at 48,931 euro cents. A situation that highlights the need for political and institutional serenity.

In Senegal, Pastef holds a majority with 130 of the 165 seats in Parliament. Furthermore, the other major challenge in the fourth quarter 2024 is that Senegal will have to disburse more than 1540 billion FCFA for debt service.

Published on 21/10/26 09:03

Mouhamadou Dieng

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