The draft Budget 2027 of Senegal was made public on this 15 of October. It is projected in revenue at 6 012,1 billion FCFA against 5 848,7 billion FCFA for the adjusted finance law 2026, representing an increase of 163,4 billion FCFA in absolute terms and 2,8% in relative terms; in expenditure at 7 363,7 billion FCFA against 7 583,9 billion FCFA for the adjusted finance law 2026, representing a decrease of 220,1 billion FCFA in absolute terms and 2,9% in relative terms.
For economist Babacar, four points of attention are necessary regarding the initial draft finance bill for 2027. The first, according to him, concerns debt.
Because interest payments, 1 303,9 billion, represent 96,5% of the overall deficit, and the primary balance falls from 450 billion to 47,7 billion, or 0,2% of PIB. According to the specialist's interpretation, the total debt service reaches 5 855,8 billion, more than ordinary revenue of 5 452,6 billion.
Thus, for every 100 francs collected, 107 go to creditors, and even 84 if one excludes the renewal of Treasury bills. "Above all, 319,5 billion in interest, or a quarter of the total, relates to future issues and drawdowns, therefore to debt not yet contracted, while the explanatory memorandum acknowledges the loss of access to international markets.
This burden depends on rates that the State does not control," maintains Babacar Gaye. The second point of attention according to his reading concerns the nature of the adjustment.
In his view, the text, the economist says, states that the effort focuses primarily on spending, with priority on energy subsidies. However, the decrease of 220,1 billion is more than covered by the reduction in investment, which falls by 237,1 billion, of which 176,4 comes from internal resources, i.e., 15,6%.
A growing wage bill. For Babacar Gaye, current expenditures, including interest, only decrease by 9,2 billion, with the wage bill increasing by 4,1% against inflation of 2,7%.
The reclassification of transfers toward goods and services, he says, also obscures the reading of the savings achieved on energy. Because the 2025 fiscal year had already resulted in a compression of public investment, and growth excluding hydrocarbons only reached 2,2%.
We are consolidating by cutting back on what prepares for tomorrow's growth. The third axis of analysis concerns ratios.
The executive, the economist notes, presents a deficit reduced from 7,6% to 4,7% of PIB, or nearly three percentage points. The project only provides the nominal PIB for 2027, at 28 772 billion, which confirms the 4,7%.
Thus, he notes that for 1 735,2 billion to account for 7,6% in 2026, a PIB close to 22 800 billion would be required, therefore nominal growth higher than 25% in one year, which neither 2,4% real growth nor 2,7% inflation allows. "On a consistent basis, the deficit for 2026 would be around 6,3% of PIB and the improvement would be approximately 1,6 percentage point.
Whether a change in scope or in the PIB year, the executive owes a reconciliation table before the vote," says Babacar Gaye. A fragility of financing.
The fourth point, according to him, concerns the fragility of financing. Domestic revenue excluding hydrocarbons, according to Babacar Gaye, only increases by 0,2% against a historical trend higher than 8%, and the budget still relies on 315 billion from recovery plan measures, which were 56,9% achieved by the end of August.
Thus, he notes that the financing need of 6 608,7 billion, i.e., 23% of PIB, is used for 68,9% to repay debts already matured, which the text itself acknowledges. Continuing his analysis, he points out that more than 800 billion in concessional support, approximately 60% of the deficit to be financed, depends on a FMI program of 2,2 billion dollars that has only reached the stage of a technical agreement.
Published on 16/10/26 09:22. Mouhamadou Dieng