The draft Budget 2027 of Senegal was made public this 15 of October. Revenue is projected at 6 012,1 billion FCFA against 5 848,7 billion FCFA for the adjusted finance law 2026, representing an increase of 163,4 billion FCFA in absolute value and 2,8% in relative value; expenditures at 7 363,7 billion FCFA against 7 583,9 billion FCFA for the adjusted finance law 2026, representing a decrease of 220,1 billion FCFA in absolute value and 2,9% in relative value.
For economist Babacar, four points of attention are necessary regarding the initial draft finance bill for 2027. The first, according to him, concerns debt.
Because interest payments, 1 303,9 billion, represent 96,5% of the overall deficit, and the primary balance falls from 450 billion to 47,7 billion, or 0,2% of PIB. According to the specialist's reading, the total debt service reaches 5 855,8 billion, more than the ordinary revenue of 5 452,6 billion.
Thus, for every 100 francs collected, 107 go to creditors, and an additional 84 if one excludes the renewal of Treasury bills. "Above all, 319,5 billion in interest, or a quarter of the total, relates to future issues and drawdowns, therefore to debt not yet contracted, while the explanatory memorandum acknowledges the loss of access to international markets.
This burden depends on rates that the State does not control," maintains Babacar Gaye. The second point of attention according to his reading concerns the nature of the adjustment.
In his view, the text, the economist says, asserts that the effort focuses first on expenditure, primarily on energy subsidies. However, the decrease of 220,1 billion is more than covered by that of investment, which falls by 237,1 billion, of which 176,4 comes from internal resources, i.e., 15,6%.
A growing wage bill. For Babacar Gaye, current expenditures, including interest, decrease by only 9,2 billion, with the wage bill increasing by 4,1% against inflation of 2,7%.
The reclassification of transfers to goods and services, he says, also obscures the reading of the savings achieved on energy. Because the 2025 fiscal year had already resulted in a compression of public investment, and growth excluding hydrocarbons only reached 2,2%.
We are consolidating by cutting into what prepares for tomorrow's growth. The third axis of analysis concerns the ratios.
The executive, the economist observes, presents a deficit reduced from 7,6% to 4,7% of PIB, or nearly three percentage points. The draft provides the nominal PIB only for 2027, at 28 772 billion, which confirms the 4,7%.
Thus, he notes that for 1 735,2 billion to weigh 7,6% in 2026, a PIB close to 22 800 billion would be required, therefore nominal growth exceeding 25% in one year, which neither 2,4% real growth nor 2,7% inflation allows. "On a homogeneous basis, the 2026 deficit would be around 6,3% of PIB and the improvement would be about 1,6 percentage point.
Changing the scope or the vintage of PIB, the executive owes a reconciliation table before the vote," says Babacar Gaye. Fragility of financing.
The fourth point, according to him, concerns the fragility of financing. Domestic revenue excluding hydrocarbons according to Babacar Gaye increases by only 0,2% against a historical trend exceeding 8%, and the budget still relies on 315 billion from recovery plan measures, which were 56,9% achieved against their target at the end of August.
Thus, he notes that the financing need of 6 608,7 billion, or 23% of PIB, is used for 68,9% to repay debts already due, which the text itself acknowledges. Continuing his analysis, he highlights that more than 800 billion in concessional support, about 60% of the deficit to be financed, depends on a FMI program of 2,2 billion dollars that has only cleared the technical agreement stage.
Published on 16/10/26 09:08. Mouhamadou Dieng