The rating agency has upgraded Ghana's rating from "Caa1" to "B3", with a now stable outlook. This improvement rewards the reduction in debt costs, fiscal discipline, and the strengthening of external accounts, supported by the surge in gold exports.
Nevertheless, Accra remains exposed to the volatility of commodities and exchange rates. Three years after initiating its debt restructuring, Ghana reaches a new milestone in the normalization of its financial profile.
On 9 October 2026, Moody's Ratings upgraded the country's long-term sovereign rating from "Caa1" to "B3", in both local and foreign currency. Concurrently, the agency revised the outlook from positive to stable.
International bonds and Ghana’s debt issuance programs benefit from the same upgrade. This decision reflects an improvement in the government's capacity to finance its budget and honor its obligations, even though its credit signature remains classified in the speculative category.
A "B3" rating still indicates a high credit risk but signals a further departure from levels associated with a situation of financial distress. The upgrade is primarily based on the sustainable decline in domestic financing costs, the improvement in debt affordability, and the strengthening of macroeconomic balances.
For Moody's, these advances should withstand external tensions, particularly those caused by the conflict in the Middle East. The reduction in interest expense is one of the main drivers of the decision.
In the first half of 2026, interest payments were 24% lower than budget forecasts. They absorbed only 17,2% of government revenue, their lowest level since 2012.
Moody's expects this ratio to stabilize between 20% and 25% through 2028, compared to a range of 25% to 30% anticipated when the agency had upgraded Ghana's rating to "Caa1" in October 2025. This improvement is notably explained by the easing of inflation and the decline in domestic market rates.
Inflation, which fell to 3,2% in March 2026, rose back to 5,2% in September but remains contained within the Bank of Ghana's target range, set at 8%, with a two-point margin. 364-day Treasury bills were thus auctioned at rates between 10% and 13% during the first nine months of the year, against a policy rate of 14%. This easing is rapidly being transmitted to the budget, as short-term securities still occupy a significant place in state financing.
Nevertheless, normalization remains incomplete. The domestic bond market is only just beginning to welcome longer-maturity issuances.
Their development must progressively reduce refinancing risk, i.e., the need for the state to frequently renew its short-term debt. Fiscal discipline also played a determining role.
After a primary deficit of 2,1% of gross domestic product in 2024, Ghana achieved a surplus exceeding 2% of PIB in 2025. Moody's estimates that the government should meet its primary surplus target of 1,5% in 2026.
The primary balance measures the difference between government revenue and expenditure, excluding debt interest. A surplus therefore means that the state generates sufficient resources to cover its current expenditures and contribute to the repayment of its financial obligations.
Due to fiscal consolidation and the appreciation of the national currency, public debt, according to the scope used by Moody's, has fallen from 70,1% of PIB in 2024 to 48,8% in 2025. This calculation includes, in particular, the obligations of the Ghana Cocoa Board, arrears owed to suppliers, and state-guaranteed debt.
The agency now expects debt to stabilize around 50% of PIB over the coming years. The end, in July 2026, of the program supported by the FMI Extended Credit Facility must not mark the cessation of reforms.
A new Policy Coordination Instrument, with a duration of 36 months and no disbursement, is intended to serve as a framework for maintaining fiscal discipline and investor confidence. However, Ghana remains penalized by weak government revenue.
A narrow tax base limits the government's room for maneuver and keeps the weight of interest at a level still high compared to other countries rated in the "B" category. The rating improvement is also largely based on the gold sector.
As Africa's leading gold producer according to Moody's, Ghana benefits from historically high prices. The precious metal accounted for 67% of its merchandise exports in 2025.
This dynamic has contributed to the return of the current account to a surplus since 2024, after more than twenty years marked by recurring deficits.