After several months of relative calm, global food markets are once again showing signs of volatility. The benchmark index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) stood at 136 points in September 2026, up 1,5% month-on-month and 5,8% year-on-year.
An acceleration driven primarily by cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils. The main source of tension lies with cereals.
The FAO index dedicated to them jumped 5,1% in September, bringing its year-on-year increase to 17,2%. Wheat prices saw a particular increase of 6,3%, under the combined effect of logistical difficulties in the Black Sea and dry weather in certain regions of North America before sowing.
Corn followed the same trajectory, with a rise of 5,6%, penalized by concerns over US yields, the decline in Brazilian export availability, and trade disruptions in the Black Sea. Rice is not immune to this pressure.
Its prices increased by 1,4%, notably due to meteorological concerns and seasonal supply tightening. Sugar under surveillance Another point of tension, sugar saw its index rise by 6,1% in one month.
The FAO anticipates a tightening of global availability during the 2026-2027 campaign. Several factors are converging: production forecasts revised downward in Thailand, concerns about the Indian harvest in a context of insufficient rainfall, the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, heavy rains in south-central Brazil, and a decline in areas dedicated to sugar beet in the European Union.
Vegetable oils also experienced a more moderate increase of 0,9%, driven in particular by palm oil. Global import demand remains strong while dry conditions in Southeast Asia fuel fears regarding production.
Meat and dairy products buck the trend Not all food markets follow this trajectory. The FAO meat price index fell by 1,1%, mainly due to the abundance of exportable pork and poultry supplies.
Brazilian beef prices nevertheless increased, supported by increased demand from the United States. Dairy products evolved almost at equilibrium, with a slight decline of 0,1%.
The drop in cheese prices offset part of the rise in milk powder, while butter prices remained almost unchanged. Transport is becoming a price factor Beyond harvests, the FAO now points to the growing role of trade infrastructure in price formation.
The disruptions affecting the Black Sea and the uncertainties surrounding maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz increase logistics costs and can reduce the actual availability of goods in certain markets. For Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of the FAO, the combination of climate shocks and disruptions in major maritime corridors is simultaneously exerting pressure on energy, transport, and several essential commodities.
The risk thus extends beyond the raw materials market alone. If these tensions persist, they could gradually pass through to the prices paid by consumers, with particularly high exposure for countries dependent on food and energy imports.
Published on 05/10/26 17:07 Dr. Ange Ponou