The main cocoa harvest in Côte d'Ivoire, the world's leading producer, is expected to reach approximately 1,25 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season, compared to 1,5 million tonnes in the previous season, representing a decline of nearly 17%. This estimate emerges from a survey conducted by Reuters among producers, exporters, cooperatives, and buyers, as weather conditions and rising input costs weigh on production outlooks.
The main season, which runs from September to February 2027, has faced a rainfall deficit since July. While the country is normally in the middle of the rainy season during this period, several interviewed producers report persistently dry conditions in the main production areas.
This lack of moisture particularly disrupts the development of flowers and young pods. In addition to this climatic constraint, there is a decrease in the use of fertilizers and pesticides.
The rise in prices for these inputs reportedly led several producers to reduce their purchases, thereby limiting treatments and plantation maintenance. Last April, a survey cited by Reuters already indicated that 73% of producers interviewed in three major cocoa-growing regions had not purchased any fertilizer for the next two production cycles.
Significantly lower arrivals: The first volumes of the season also confirm the expected slowdown. An executive at an Abidjan-based export firm estimates weekly cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports at only 20 000 to 25 000 tonnes in October, compared to an average of about 71 300 tonnes per week in the same month last year.
The situation was already concerning in September. Producers had reported a lack of rain in several cocoa-growing regions, with pods notably falling prematurely from trees.
They estimated that a continuation of the drought until mid-October could shorten the main harvest. Furthermore, the campaign schedule was brought forward by one month compared to the previous season.
The 2025/26 main harvest began in October and continued until March, whereas the 2026/27 campaign officially started in September. The expected decline in the Ivorian harvest occurs in a context of broader risks to West African cocoa supply.
In Ghana, the world's second-largest producer, the regulator COCOBOD anticipated at the end of July a decline of at least 16% in production for the 2026/27 season, due in particular to weather conditions, diseases, and the aging of plantations. Fanuelle YAO Published on 02/10/26 17:09 The Editorial Staff