The Republic of the Congo could record one of the most significant economic accelerations in the CEMAC in 2026. The BEAC projects, in its baseline scenario, a real growth rate of 5,1%, following 4,9% in 2025.
The main driver would be the oil sector, expected to increase by 10,1%, compared to 5,1% the previous year. This progression would allow the Congolese economy to grow significantly faster than the regional average, forecast at 3%.
The non-oil sector is expected to grow by 3,1%, after 4,8% in 2025. The central bank already notes that oilfield services and gas activities have benefited from new investments, even if energy supply difficulties and logistical constraints continue to weigh on costs and corporate profitability.
This configuration gives the extractive sector a still-central role in the recovery. It also raises the question of the ability of other activities to maintain their pace once the oil effect normalizes.
Gas constitutes another important lever. In its report, the BEAC indicates that the expected increase in regional gas production in 2026 would be particularly supported by Congo and Gabon.
It also notes that the rise in Congolese liquefied natural gas exports has already helped support foreign currency inflows in the CEMAC. For Brazzaville, gas is thus becoming a complementary relay to oil in generating export revenues and improving the external position.
The public finance situation, however, would remain demanding. Congo's total debt is estimated at 77,3% of PIB in 2026, compared to 84,3% in 2025.
External debt alone would represent 33,9% of PIB and its service would absorb the equivalent of 34% of budgetary revenues, compared to 18,6% in 2025. The strong growth expected therefore reduces certain ratios, but it does not eliminate the constraint of debt service on public finances.
The expected recovery of PIB is, moreover, not yet fully reflected in bank credit. As of the end of June 2026, credit to the Congolese economy amounted to 1 638,2 billion FCFA, compared to 1 701,5 billion a year earlier, a decrease of 3,7%.
Medium-term loans fell by 12,1% and long-term loans by 12,7%. The anticipated growth therefore relies, at this stage, more on the extractive apparatus and associated investments than on a generalized expansion of bank financing to businesses and households.
Idrissa Diakité Published on 02/10/26 11:36 The Editorial Staff