The 40 week is marked by extreme volatility in oil, which went from a plunge below 97 dollars on Tuesday to a peak near 108 dollars on Thursday morning, to end the week with a measured rise of 1,5 %. Sugar continues its advance, driven this time by the surge in the Brazilian real rather than by supply prospects alone.
Arabica coffee retreats after marked volatility, while cocoa, robusta, cotton, palm oil and TSR20 end the week near equilibrium. Oil: +1,5 %, from plunge to peak in three sessions.
Brent opened on Monday at 103,15 dollars and closed on Friday at 104,72 dollars, up 1,5 % for the week, but this figure masks one of the most turbulent sequences in several months. The contract fell on Tuesday to an intraday low of 97,06 dollars, with JPMorgan estimates showing Gulf exports returning to 98 % of their pre-war level and the announcement of a coordinated release of 100 million barrels from the strategic reserves of G7 countries.
The market then recovered on Wednesday and especially on Thursday, when the Houthis claimed attacks against airports and a Saudi oil facility, propelling prices up to approximately 108 dollars in the morning, their highest level in several weeks. This surge faded at the end of the session, however, after Donald Trump ruled out any new strikes against Iran before the midterm elections, bringing Brent back to 104,28 dollars at the close (+4,07 % for the day despite the decline from the morning peak).
The AIE also raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to 105 dollars, which is 14 dollars higher than its September estimate. Sugar: +1,4 %, the Brazilian real takes over from fundamentals.
Sugar rises from 19,97 to 20,25 cents per pound, but the small weekly change conceals a very turbulent week. Prices jumped 4,01 % on Monday, driven by a surge in the Brazilian real after a market-friendly candidate took the lead in the first round of the presidential election, with a stronger real encouraging Brazilian producers to withhold their dollar-denominated sales.
The market then eased slightly, with a 3,26 % decline on Thursday after several sessions of profit-taking by producers. Prices nevertheless remain near their highest level since 2024, consistent with the global deficit revisions of previous weeks.
Coffee: Arabica falls by 2,1 % after marked volatility. Arabica first climbed above 3 dollars per pound on Tuesday, driven by the same movement of the Brazilian real as sugar, before falling 3,86 % on Wednesday when the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce reported record coffee exports for September, up more than 20 % year-on-year.
The market ends the week at 286,95 cents, down 2,1 % from its opening level. Robusta follows a similar but more contained trajectory, almost stable at 3 470 dollars per ton (-0,3 %).
Cocoa, cotton, palm oil and TSR20: markets near equilibrium. Cocoa ends the week almost unchanged (5 658 to 5 665 dollars, +0,1 %).
Cotton rises by 2,0 % (79,00 to 80,54 cents) and palm oil by 0,3 % (4 578 to 4 592 MYR). TSR20 gains 1,7 % over the week (260,4 to 264,8 SGD/kg), with a low point at 258,2 on Wednesday.
This week, oil illustrates the market's difficulty in choosing between two competing narratives: Gulf supply that is normalizing, documented by precise data on Saudi exports, and a risk of escalation that remains ready to resurface at the slightest incident, as shown by the reaction to Thursday's Houthi attacks. For sugar and coffee, it is a factor that is rarely decisive, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real, which took precedence over physical fundamentals at the very beginning of the week, before Brazil's record export volumes brutally reminded the coffee market of the reality of abundant supply.
The other markets, which remained near equilibrium, suggest that this agitation remained largely confined to energy and the two commodities most sensitive to the real. Published on 12/10/26 11:57.
The Editorial Board