The week 39 is marked by a clear contrast in the agricultural markets. Sugar is accelerating sharply, driven by tighter global supply outlooks, while cotton is retreating under the pressure of the U.S. harvest and disappointing Chinese demand.
Oil is progressing moderately in a geopolitical context that remains tense. Cocoa, coffee, and rubber also end in the green, while palm oil continues its decline.
Sugar: +13,4 %, highest level in 18 months
Sugar jumps from 17,58 to 19,93 cents per pound, an increase of 13,4 % over the week, and reaches its highest level since April 2025. The acceleration is particularly strong at the end of the week, with gains of 7,43 % on Thursday and 5,23 % on Friday.
The movement reflects a tightening of supply prospects. The International Sugar Organization now forecasts a global deficit for 2026/27, whereas it was still anticipating a surplus in June.
In Brazil, production in the Center-South remains lower than last year, while European beet forecasts have been lowered by 17 % following the summer drought. The FAO also recorded a 6,1 % increase in global sugar prices in September, marking a third consecutive month of growth.
Cotton: -4,3 %, the U.S. harvest weighs
Cotton retreats from 82,40 to 78,88 cents per pound. Prices notably fell by 4,83 % on Tuesday, as improving weather conditions in Texas reduced concerns over the U.S. harvest.
Chinese demand also remains disappointing following the trade summit.
The progress of harvests reinforces this pressure. By mid-September, Arizona had harvested 39 % of its production and Texas 23 %.
The arrival of new supplies therefore occurs in a market where export demand remains lackluster, limiting the ability of prices to rebound.
Oil: +2,3 %, geopolitical risk remains present
Brent crude gains 2,3 %, rising from 100 to 102,25 dollars per barrel. This is its first full week on the December contract, following the expiration of the November contract on 30 September at 103,50 dollars.
The market remains supported by tensions in the Middle East. Washington announced the dispatch of a third carrier strike group to the region and mentioned possible new strikes against Iran.
China has also suspended part of its refined fuel exports for October. The resumption of Gulf oil flows, which are close to their pre-war levels, nevertheless limits the progression of prices.
Cocoa, coffee, and rubber in the green
Cocoa advances 0,8 %, from 5 625 to 5 670 dollars per ton, with a 5,37 % increase on Friday following the announcement by Ghana of a 2,4 % increase in the price paid to producers for 2026/27, to 3 647 dollars per ton. The gap with Ivory Coast, where the price paid stands at 2 084 dollars, fuels fears of a diversion of bean flows toward Ghana.
Arabica rises 3,9 %, to 288,75 cents per pound, while robusta gains 3,3 %, to 3 469 dollars per ton. The TSR20, now monitored to replace the RSS3, advances 3,95 %, to 257,8 SGD/kg.
Palm oil: -2,8 %, the decline continues
Palm oil continues its slide, retreating from 4 664 to 4 535 MYR per ton. The market thus records another week of decline, as prices have fallen every day during the period.
Agricultural markets with opposing balances
The week 39 illustrates above all the contrast between sugar and cotton. The former benefits from a degradation in global supply prospects, while the latter suffers from the arrival of new U.S. supplies in a context of still-fragile demand.
Oil remains supported by geopolitical risk, without any new surge, while cocoa draws attention to the growing divergences between the pricing policies of the two main West African producers.
Published on 05/10/26 08:42
The Editorial Board