The week 38 is more contrasting than the stability of Brent crude suggests. Oil fluctuates based on diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran and persistent supply tensions in the Middle East.
Cocoa rebounds by 5,5 % after its sharp correction the previous week, while palm oil declines by 4,6 % to its lowest closing level in seven weeks. Coffee, sugar, cotton, and natural rubber show more contained movements.
Oil: Brent stable at 104 dollars, WTI drops nearly 8 %. Brent ends the week at 104,32 dollars, against 103,87 dollars seven days earlier, representing a limited increase of 0,4 %.
This near-stability, however, masks high volatility. The contract first fell 3,4 % on Monday to 100,34 dollars, then 1,1 % on Tuesday to 99,25 dollars, its lowest settlement of the week, as Donald Trump stated he was prepared to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the ONU General Assembly.
The recovery in Saudi exports, to over 4 million barrels per day in September, also weighed on prices. The trend then reversed.
Brent rose to 106,60 dollars on Thursday, supported by continued Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia and persistent tensions regarding international supply, particularly diesel. The move reversed on Friday, with a decline of 2,1 %, following new diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran.
Notably, Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and resuming nuclear discussions under certain conditions, while American and Iranian diplomats met in New York. The WTI declined more sharply, losing 7,9 % to 92,41 dollars.
The spread between the two benchmarks thus reached nearly 12 dollars, reflecting a different evolution of the two contracts in the face of supply and demand uncertainties. Cocoa: +5,5 %, a rebound that does not erase the correction.
Cocoa rebounds by 5,5 %, moving from 5 327 to 5 619 dollars per ton, after losing 10,3 % the previous week. The market recorded five consecutive sessions of gains and found an initial support point around 5 300 dollars, despite a dip to 5 111 dollars on Tuesday.
This rebound, however, must be put into perspective. Certified ICE stocks remain around 3,4 million bags, their highest level in two years.
At the same time, concerns about the next campaign continue to support prices: the announced delay of eight to ten weeks for the Ivorian main campaign and the scheduled opening on Friday of the Ghanaian 2026/27 campaign keep focus on supply prospects. The market thus remains divided between currently abundant stocks and uncertainties regarding the next harvest.
Palm oil: -4,6 %, lowest closing since early August. Palm oil continues its retreat, with a decline of 4,6 % over the week, from 4 898 to 4 672 MYR per ton.
The movement intensified on Friday, with a decline of 2,1 % that brought the contract to its lowest closing level since August 3. Pressure comes mainly from Malaysian market fundamentals.
Production is expected to rise while exports have declined by 15,1 % to 24,3 % between the 1rd and 25 September compared to the previous month. This combination fuels expectations of stocks exceeding 3,1 million tons at the end of the month.
The persistent weakness of Indian demand, despite the reduction of import duties on edible oils, also reinforces pressure on prices. The decline in oil on Friday and the drop in soybean oil in Chicago amplified the movement.
Palm oil thus accumulates pressure specific to its market and a less favorable environment regarding energy commodities and competing oils. Coffee, sugar, cotton, and rubber: more contained movements.
Other commodities show more limited variations. Arabica declines by 0,7 %, from 280,50 to 278,60 cents, after a dip to 269,75 cents on Wednesday, while robusta drops 0,9 %, to 3 367 dollars per ton.
Sugar rises 1,4 %, from 18,24 to 18,50 cents, and cotton gains 1,9 %, from 81,15 to 82,71 cents, after a rise of 2,8 % on Monday. The RSS3 advances for its part by 2,6 %, from 274 to 281 SGD/kg, in a market that remains illiquid.
The week 38 highlights very different trajectories within the complex. Brent finishes almost unchanged despite strong fluctuations, while WTI shows a significantly more marked decline.
In agricultural markets, palm oil is under pressure from unfavorable fundamentals, including expected production increases, declining exports, and the risk of stock accumulation. Cocoa is moving in the opposite direction with a rebound of 5,5 %, but this is not enough to erase