Immigration between African countries is associated with an improvement in the current account, a strengthening of trade flows, and a favorable evolution of the demographic structure. A study by the African Development Bank (BAD), conducted on 52 countries between 1990 and 2019, quantifies these relationships and advocates for a more fluid circulation of people on the continent.
What if the free movement of Africans also constituted a lever for economic rebalancing? Long approached from a social and migratory perspective, intra-African mobility could also contribute to consolidating the external accounts of the continent's economies.
This is the conclusion of the study 'Intra-African Immigration and Africa's External Performance', conducted by authors Hammed Amusa, Blaise Gnimassoun, and Anthony Simpasa, based on econometric estimates covering nearly 3 decades. A positive effect on external balances.
Based on a methodology aimed at better isolating the relationship between immigration and external performance, the authors find a positive association between intra-African immigration and the current account balance. In their instrumental variable estimates, coefficients range from 0,786 to 0,933, with statistical significance at the 1% threshold in the specifications presented.
The link also appears in the trade balance, which measures the gap between exports and imports of goods. Estimated coefficients vary from 1,637 to 2,023.
For intra-African trade alone, they range from 1,061 to 1,437, with significance at the 1% threshold. The results concerning the trade balance with countries outside the continent are more variable depending on the models, with coefficients ranging between 0,750 and 1,473.
These values support the general conclusion of the researchers, namely that intra-African immigration is associated with better commercial and external performance. Regional trade gains relative weight.
The study also notes a negative relationship between intra-African immigration and two indicators: the relative share of trade with non-African countries and the ratio between extra-African and intra-African trade. The coefficients are statistically significant at the 1% threshold in the full specifications presented by the authors.
This relationship suggests that regional mobility accompanies deeper trade integration. However, it does not necessarily mean that trade with the rest of the world decreases in absolute value.
The structure of continental trade underscores the importance of this issue. Between 2016 and 2022, raw materials represented 81% of African exports to the rest of the world, while manufactured goods constituted 66% of extra-African imports.
In trade between African countries, raw materials accounted for 55%, compared to 45% for manufactured goods. These data, which cover a period distinct from the econometric sample, highlight a difference in composition between regional trade and trade conducted with the rest of the world.
A measurable demographic dividend. African mobility is also associated with an evolution in population structure.
In the BAD estimates, coefficients related to the dependency ratio range between −0,682 and −0,612, while those regarding the relative share of the working-age population range from 0,225 to 0,253. Both relationships are statistically significant at the 1% threshold.
The dependency ratio generally compares the population considered dependent to the working-age population. Its relative decrease, combined with a higher share of people of working age, can expand the available labor pool.
However, this potential advantage depends on the ability of economies to create jobs, valorize skills, and integrate workers into productive circuits. Removing obstacles to mobility.
To convert these statistical relationships into sustainable economic benefits, the authors advocate for more effective implementation of the African Union protocol on the free movement of persons. They also recommend investing in transport and communication infrastructure, simplifying border formalities, harmonizing migration policies, and strengthening security cooperation, particularly through biometric identification.
Published on 19/10/26 10:37. Dr.
Ange Ponou